717
AXPZ20 KNHC 050854
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0850 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 08N125W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE
BEEN ACTIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH, LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL IS MOVING INTO WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, EXCEPT
FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WEAKENS. GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BRIEFLY WED.
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS LATE TODAY INTO TUE,
WITH MAINLY MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND
OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
MID WEEK FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS WELL AS IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH PULSES THEREAFTER.
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N120W TO 22N130W, MOVING WEST AT 10
TO 15 KT. GENTLE NW BREEZES FOLLOW THE FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT AND PERIODS OF 12 TO 14 SECONDS COVERS
THE AREA ROUGHLY NORTH OF 09N AND WEST OF 115W. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS FROM 15N TO 20N WEST OF 125W, BUT GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH 5 TO 7 FT WAVE HEIGHTS,
PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH LATER
TODAY ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST. A SECOND FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 125W LATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. MOST OF THE
LARGE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK, JUST AS A NEW GROUP OF
NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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