063
AXPZ20 KNHC 051537
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N74W TO 05.5N96W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05.5N96W TO 08.5N121W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06.5N EAST OF 82W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 82W AND 89W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING, AND EXTEND OFFSHORE TO NEAR 13N, WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. FARTHER NORTH, HIGH PRESSURE
WELL NW OF THE AREA EXTEND A RIDGE EASTWARD ALONG ABOUT 25N INTO
BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, BECOMING NE
WINDS INTO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS
ARE BEING DOMINATED BY NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, EXCEPT
FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WEAKENS, THEN BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH TUE. GAP WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO RETURN THERE BRIEFLY ON WED. MODERATE NW SWELL
WILL FOLLOW A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS LATE TODAY INTO TUE, WITH MAINLY
MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MID WEEK
FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA EXTENDING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION, AND NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. SEAS IN THESE AREAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH PULSES THEREAFTER.
PULSING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH REACHES FROM 30N119W TO 22N130W,
MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KT. GENTLE NW TO N BREEZES FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. LARGE NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT AT
PERIODS OF 11 TO 14 SECONDS COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY NORTH OF 08N
AND WEST OF 116W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATED
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 15N TO 20N WEST OF 125W, BUT
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH 5 TO 7 FT
WAVE HEIGHTS, PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY
ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 125W LATE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. MOST OF THE LARGE
SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK, JUST AS NEW NW SWELL MOVES
INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID WEEK.
STRIPLING
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