684
AXPZ20 KNHC 052048
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N74W TO 04.5N78.5W TO 05N96W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N96W TO 09N121W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 05.5N EAST
OF 82.5W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MIDDAY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KT
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST, WITH FRESH N WINDS THEN EXTENDING
OFFSHORE TO NEAR 13N. SEAS THERE HAVE SUBSIDED TO 5 TO 6 FT.
THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS BEING FORCED BY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. FARTHER NORTH, HIGH PRESSURE WELL NW
OF THE AREA EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE FROM 130W EASTWARD ALONG ABOUT
26N INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, BECOMING
FRESH NE WINDS INTO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS ACROSS THE
BAJA WATERS ARE BEING DOMINATED BY NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE
REGIONAL WATERS, PRODUCING SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE, A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE OUTER BAJA
OFFSHORE WATERS, EXTENDING FROM 30N117W TO 26N123W. MAINLY GENTLE
WINDS FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN PULSE TO
FRESH TONIGHT. WINDS THERE WILL THEN BECOME VARIABLE TUE, THEN
PULSE FRESH TO STRONG TUE AND WED NIGHTS. NW SWELL ACROSS THE
BAJA WATERS IS PEAKING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH WED AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE REMAINING MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED, AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAJA NORTE
WATERS WED MORNING. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THU MORNING FOLLOWED BY FRESH WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS IN NW SWELL. LOOKING AHEAD, LARGE NW SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THU INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH SEAS POTENTIALLY REACHING 12 FT AND HIGHER THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER BAJA NORTE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA EXTENDING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND
4 TO 6 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL N OF 05N, WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
OCCURRING S OF 05N. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE
ACROSS THESE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH PULSES THEREAFTER THROUGH FRI.
PULSING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH REACHES FROM 30N117W TO 26N123W,
MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KT. GENTLE NW TO N BREEZES FOLLOW THE
FRONT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. LARGE NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT AT
PERIODS OF 11 TO 14 SECONDS COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY NORTH OF 07N
AND WEST OF 115W. RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 22N WEST OF 120W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH 5 TO 7 FT
WAVE HEIGHTS IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS IT MOVES NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST. A SECOND
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF
130W LATE TODAY WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH FROM NEAR
30N120W TO 22N130W TUE NIGHT, THEN INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS WED THROUGH THU AS IT DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. THE LARGE SWELL CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK, JUST AS NEW
NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID WEEK.
STRIPLING
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