912
AXPZ20 KNHC 060319
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N84W TO 06N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N95W TO 10N125W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN
130W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAK RIDGING ALONG ROUGHLY 25N IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS. NW SWELL TO 8 FT
OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 90 NM OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE SUBSIDING,
BUT JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL APPROACHING THE
AREA AHEAD THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
LARGE SWELL WILL PERSIST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH THU,
WITH VERY LARGE SWELL POSSIBLE BY FRI AS REINFORCING SWELL ENTERS
THE AREA. THE NW SWELL WILL REACH CABO SAN LAZARO FRI AND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS SAT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI AND SAT.
FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH GAP WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WED OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. LOOKING AHEAD, GALE- FORCE GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND 4
TO 6 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF 05N, WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF 05N. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
CONTINUE ACROSS THESE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH PULSES THEREAFTER THROUGH FRI.
PULSING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING FROM OFF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO 20N140W IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. MODERATE TO
FRESH NW TO N WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTH OF
30N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS
COVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 115W. MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 110W. GENTLE
BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT COVERS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND WEST OF 115W. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 5 TO 7 FT
ELSEWHERE WEST OF 110W AND 4 TO 5 FT EAST OF 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 22N THROUGH MID WEEK, BEFORE STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO LATE WED INTO THU. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. THE LARGE SWELL
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MID
WEEK, JUST AS NEW NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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