562
AXPZ20 KNHC 061553
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N75W TO 08N85W TO 05N97W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N97W TO 10.5N125W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 07.5N BETWEEN
77W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 05.5N TO 11N W OF 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE BAJA REGION ROUGHLY ALONG 25N IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS SOUTH
OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND INSIDE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
BECOMING NE THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WITH GENTLE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA NORTE. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
BREEZES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS TO
PUERTO ANGEL. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS, WITH PEAK SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 90 NM
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND SEAS GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT
ELSEWHERE. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE NW TO N
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A NEW COLD FRONT IS MOVING
EASTWARD, LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA NORTE, ALONG 123W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MID WEEK. NEW NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WED THEN PERSIST
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH THU, WITH VERY LARGE
REINFORCING SWELL ENTERING THE REGION AND REACHING CABO SAN
LAZARO FRI AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS SAT. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH
GAP WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LOOKING
AHEAD, A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AND WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
BEGINNING SAT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND 4
TO 6 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF 05N, WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF 05N. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
CONTINUE ACROSS THESE WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 03N TO 07.5N BETWEEN
THE COAST OF SW COLOMBIA AND 82W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK. PULSING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING FROM OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO 19N132W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 122W AND
132W. MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT
IS MOVING SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 123W AND 140W, WITH A NARROW BAND
OF MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND
WEST OF 115W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ
AND WEST OF 110W. GENTLE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NW SWELL
PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 02N AND
WEST OF 113W. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE WEST OF 110W
AND 4 TO 5 FT EAST OF 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 22N THROUGH MID WEEK, BEFORE STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO LATE WED INTO THU. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. THE LARGE SWELL
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MID
WEEK, JUST AS NEW NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID WEEK.
STRIPLING
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