134
AXPZ20 KNHC 062101
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74.5W TO 08N86W TO 05N97W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N97W TO 10N126W TO BEYOND 07.5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 08.5N
BETWEEN 77W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 06.5N TO 13N W OF 124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE BAJA REGION ROUGHLY ALONG 24N IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS SOUTH
OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND INSIDE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
BECOMING NE THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WITH GENTLE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA NORTE. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
BREEZES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS TO
PUERTO ANGEL. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS, WITH PEAK SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, AS CONFIRMED BY MIDDAY SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA. SEAS
GENERALLY 4 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A NEW COLD FRONT IS
MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA NORTE WATERS, LOCATED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG 121.5W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AS IT REACHES THE OUTER BAJA NORTE WATERS TONIGHT, THEN MOVES
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE BAJA WATERS. NEW NW SWELL
GENERATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WED THEN PERSIST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
THROUGH THU, WITH LARGE REINFORCING SWELL ENTERING THE REGION THU
EVENING, AND REACHING CABO SAN LAZARO FRI MORNING AND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS SAT MORNING. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. LOOKING AHEAD, A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS
AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AND WELL DOWNWIND OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO. WINDS MAY REACH 45 KT WITH THIS
EVENT SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, AND MODERATE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT AND 4 TO 6 FT
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
NORTH OF 05N, AND MODERATE S TO SW WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF 05N,
AS CONFIRMED BY MIDDAY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE WATERS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 02.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 89W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. PULSING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING FROM OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 20N132W IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT THE ITCZ TO THE WEST OF
124W, AS DESCRIBED ABOVE, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 22N
BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS
FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS, EXTENDING THROUGH 30N121.5W TO 25.5N130W TO
26N140W. SEAS THERE ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN FRESH NW TO N SWELL. A
NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SW WINDS PREVAILS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND N OF 27N. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
NEAR 24N122W AND EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE EASTWARD INTO BAJA SUR.
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AND THE FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
TRADE WINDS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 116W.
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF
110W. GENTLE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS
OF 8 TO 11 FT STILL COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND
WEST OF 110W. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE WEST OF 110W
AND 4 TO 5 FT EAST OF 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 22N THROUGH WED, BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO LATE WED INTO THU. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BEHIND THE FRONT THU AND FRI WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. THE CURRENT NW TO N SWELL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK, JUST
AS NEW NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE SHARP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP TROPICS THROUGH THU, AND SUPPORT
CONTINUED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO NEAR 20N.
STRIPLING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page