093
AXPZ20 KNHC 070245
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0240 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 06N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N95W TO 10N125W TO BEYOND 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN
120W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE BAJA REGION ROUGHLY ALONG 24N IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS SOUTH
OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND INSIDE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
BECOMING NE THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WITH GENTLE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA NORTE. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
BREEZES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS. NW
SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS, WITH PEAK
SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT STILL OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS GENERALLY 4
TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A NEW COLD FRONT IS MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA NORTE WATERS, LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE
ALONG 121.5W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT APPROACHING GUADALUPE ISLAND WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE OUTER BAJA NORTE WATERS
OVERNIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE MOVES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE WED. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE BAJA WATERS. NEW NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
WED THEN PERSIST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH THU, WITH
LARGE REINFORCING SWELL ENTERING THE REGION THU EVENING, REACHING
CABO SAN LAZARO FRI MORNING AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS SAT
MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH, A LARGE AREA OF
GALE- FORCE GAP WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AND
WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, AND MODERATE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT AND 4 TO 6 FT
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
NORTH OF 05N, AND MODERATE S TO SW WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF 05N.
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. PULSING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA INTO FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32N122W TO
28N120W TO 25N130W TO 25N140W. FRESH N WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT NW
SWELL FOLLOW THE FRONT, AND RIDGING FOLLOWING THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WINDS, MAINLY FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N WEST OR
125W. COMBINED SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA DUE TO OLDER
NORTHERLY SWELL LINGERING IN THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS
AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS IN A MIX OF SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE ITCZ
WEST OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT ARE
EVIDENT ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE, A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES FROM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR 20N140W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 22N THROUGH WED, BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO LATE WED INTO THU. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BEHIND THE FRONT THU AND FRI WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. THE CURRENT NW TO N SWELL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK, JUST
AS NEW NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE SHARP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP TROPICS THROUGH THU, AND SUPPORT
CONTINUED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WEST OF 130W
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 20N.
CHRISTENSEN
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