488
AXPZ20 KNHC 070852
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0840 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N95W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N95W TO 10N125W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND
125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY MOVED EAST OF
GUADALUPE ISLAND, AND IS APPROACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ALONG THE FRONT. BUT
CONCURRENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7
TO 10 FT FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE SAME ALTIMETER PASSES
INDICATED 8 TO 9 FT SEAS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER GROUP OF LARGE NW SWELL THAT
MOVED INTO THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 22N, AND IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ELSEWHERE OVER MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE TODAY.
FRESH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO INTO THU. LARGE NW SWELL WILL
ALSO MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS INTO SUN,
REINFORCED BY VERY LARGE SWELL OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO THROUGH SAT. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH, BRIEF PULSE
OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, A LARGE AREA OF GALE- FORCE
GAP WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AND WELL
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, AS NOTED IN A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. THE
SAME PASS CONFIRMED MODERATE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA. SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT AND 4 TO 6
FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL NORTH OF 05N, AND MODERATE S TO SW WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH
OF 05N. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PULSING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA INTO FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32N120W TO
30N117W TO 23N127W. FRESH N WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT NW SWELL FOLLOW
THE FRONT, AND RIDGING FOLLOWING THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING FRESH
TRADE WINDS, MAINLY FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N WEST OR 125W. COMBINED
SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA DUE TO OLDER NORTHERLY SWELL
LINGERING IN THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 7 TO 9 FT
SEAS IN A MIX OF SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 120W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT ARE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE.
MEANWHILE, A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES FROM
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 22N THROUGH TODAY, BEFORE STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THU. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT THU AND FRI WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. THE
CURRENT NW TO N SWELL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH MID WEEK, JUST AS NEW NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS
NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE SHARP MID
TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP TROPICS
THROUGH THU, AND SUPPORT CONTINUED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ WEST OF 130W EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 20N.
CHRISTENSEN
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