053
AXPZ20 KNHC 072015
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1945 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N95W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N95W TO 09N120W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
THE FRONT IS WEAKENING, AND MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS EXIST ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT NOW, IMPACTING WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE ALSO ONGOING NEAR THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
AND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST N OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. FRESH GAP WINDS ARE DIMINISHING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUNATEPEC AS HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MEXICO GRADUALLY SHIFTS
E. ROUGH SEAS ARE W OF THE STALLED FRONT, OTHERWISE, MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SEAS IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
DOMINATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE COAST WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL MOVE AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS INTO SUN, REINFORCED BY
VERY LARGE SWELL OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH
SAT. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS ARE ALSO ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE,
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PULSING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA INTO FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
32N120W TO 30N116W TO 24N121W. W OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND N OF THE
ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 7 TO 10 FT SEAS IN
MIXED WIND-WAVES AND NW SWELL ARE ONGOING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN A MIX OF SWELL ARE NOTED
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 4
TO 6 FT ARE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 10N TO 22N WEST OF 120W
THROUGH FRI. REINFORCING NW SWELL WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS IN PLACE
FOR WATERS N OF 20N THROUGH LATE WEEK. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ORIENTED FROM NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TO NEAR THE
ITCZ AT 125W THROUGH AT LEAST THU, INCLUDING CONVECTION S OF 20N
NEAR ITS AXIS.
KONARIK
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