686
AXPZ20 KNHC 080349
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 8 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N90W TO 06N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N95W TO 08N120W, AND FROM 07N125W TO BEYOND
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N WEST
OF 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLING FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR PUERTO PENASCO, TO ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR TO 21N123W. FRESH NW WINDS AND LARGE SWELL FOLLOW THE FRONT
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. FRESH NW TO N WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. LARGE
NW SWELL WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
INTO SUN, REINFORCED BY VERY LARGE SWELL OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF
CABO SAN LAZARO INTO SAT. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU
NIGHT INTO MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE GAP
WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND WELL DOWNWIND OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS ARE ALSO ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE,
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PULSING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA LATE THU. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLING FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR PUERTO PENASCO, TO ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR TO 21N123W. FRESH NW TO N WINDS AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS FOLLOW THE
FRONT MAINLY WEST OF 130W. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF
125W, WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT IN A MIX OF NW SWELL AND SHORTER
PERIOD NE WIND WAVES. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE
COMBINED SEAS IN MOSTLY NW SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 10N TO 22N WEST OF 120W
THROUGH FRI. REINFORCING NW SWELL WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS IN PLACE
FOR WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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