609
AXPZ20 KNHC 080906
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 8 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N100W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N100W TO 04N115W TO 07N120W, AND FROM 06N125W
TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO
08N WEST OF 138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO 19N120W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BUT WITH STRONGER
WINDS AND LARGER WAVE HEIGHTS FARTHER UPSTREAM OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. IT IS LIKELY THAT NW SWELL TO 8 FT MAY ALREADY REACHING
THE WATERS WEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND. MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES AND 3
TO 5 FT SEAS. ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT SEAS OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND LARGE SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
INTO THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LARGE SWELL WILL REACH
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS INTO SUN, REINFORCED BY
VERY LARGE SWELL OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO INTO
SAT. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A
LARGE AREA OF GALE- FORCE GAP WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS AND WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, AS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE 4 TO 6 FT. MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ALSO ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PULSING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA LATE TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TO 19N120W. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 125W, WHERE SEAS ARE 7
TO 10 FT. LARGE SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FT IS ALSO FOLLOWING THE FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WIND WITH 7 TO 8 FT SEAS IN N SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH
OF 10N AND WEST OF 130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SEAS ARE
EVIDENT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 10N TO 22N WEST OF 120W
THROUGH FRI. REINFORCING NW SWELL WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS IN PLACE
FOR WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER
ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W BY SUN,
AND COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH LATE
MON.
CHRISTENSEN
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