387
AXPZ20 KNHC 081509
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 8 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N100W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N100W TO 05N118W, AND FROM 06N125W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N WEST
OF 137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA HAS DEVOLVED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH
NW WINDS ARE PRESENT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS OF 7 TO
10 FT IN NW SWELL ARE PRESENT. MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES AND 3 TO 5
FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT SEAS OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE SWELL WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS INTO SUN, REINFORCED BY VERY LARGE SWELL
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO INTO SAT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO MON. MEANWHILE, A LARGE AREA OF GALE-
FORCE GAP WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND WELL
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE 4 TO 6 FT. MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ALSO ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OFFSHORE COLOMBIA THIS MORNING.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PULSING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TONIGHT. GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
IS SUPPORTING FRESH EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF
120W, WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WIND
WITH 7 TO 8 FT SEAS IN N SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 10N AND WEST OF
130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SEAS ARE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 10N TO 22N WEST OF 120W
INTO FRI NIGHT. REINFORCING NW SWELL WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS IN
PLACE FOR WATERS NORTH OF 20N INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W
SAT NIGHT, AND COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W LATE
MON.
KONARIK
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