157
AXPZ20 KNHC 090956
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0920 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR
06N93W TO 06N97W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N97W TO 07N112W TO
08N125W THEN RESUMES NEAR 05N131W TO 05N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 96W, AND FROM 06N TO
09N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE GRADIENT OF PRESSURE BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA N
OF CABO SAN LAZARO, WHERE SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT ARE PRESENT.
FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WINDS ARE
MODERATE TO FRESH FROM THE NW AND SEAS ARE MODERATE TO 7 FT. IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE N OF 28N
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS PREVAIL AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE
GULF. SEAS REMAIN SLIGHT TO 3 FT, EXCEPT TO 5 FT N OF 28N. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. NEAR STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT, WITH GALES PERSISTING THROUGH TUE MORNING.
LARGE SWELL WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
INTO SUN, WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ALSO
ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE. A STRONG GAP WIND
EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT EVENING WILL
RESULT IN ROUGH SEAS SPREADING TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA SUN INTO TUE. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS NORTH OF 08N AND WEST OF 120W,
WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 11 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WIND WITH
5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN N SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF
110W. MAINLY GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 09N TO 22N WEST OF 115W
THROUGH TONIGHT. NW SWELL WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS IN PLACE FOR
WATERS NORTH OF 15N INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER
ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W SAT NIGHT,
AND COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W BY LATE MON.
RAMOS
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