921
AXPZ20 KNHC 100407
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
..STORM WARNING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA BEGINNING ON SAT. WITH THIS, A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE
AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION, BEGINNING SAT EVENING AND PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE IN SPEED THIS WEEKEND,
REACHING STORM-FORCE BY SUN NIGHT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 06N94W TO 09N110W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N110W TO 08N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 142W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA
IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WHERE ROUGH SEAS TO 12 FT ARE PRESENT. FROM CABO SAN
LAZARO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH
FROM THE NE AND SEAS ARE MODERATE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS ARE ONGOING WITH ROUGH SEAS TO
10 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW
SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED
THIS WEEKEND, REACHING STORM-FORCE STRENGTH ON SUN AFTERNOON.
GALE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM MON THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. LARGE SWELL WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS INTO SUN, WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ALSO
ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH WED.
PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE. A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT EVENING WILL RESULT IN
ROUGH SEAS SPREADING TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS NORTH OF 08N AND WEST OF 120W,
WHERE ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WIND WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN N SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF
110W. MAINLY GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 09N TO 22N WEST OF 115W
THROUGH TONIGHT. NW SWELL WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS IN PLACE FOR
WATERS NORTH OF 15N INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W SAT NIGHT, AND COVER THE
AREA NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W BY LATE MON.
RAMOS
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