967
AXPZ20 KNHC 101014
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0940 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
..GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA TODAY WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL TROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT TONIGHT
AND 20 FT BY SUN MORNING. BY SUN AFTERNOON, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH STORM-FORCE SPEEDS WITH SEAS PEAKING TO 24 FT DURING THE
SUN EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE EARLY MON
MORNING AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE EVENING. AFTERWARD, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED NIGHT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N100W TO 10N114W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N114W TO 08N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 18N BETWEEN
120W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA, AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS RESULTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE N TO NW WINDS ALONG THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFIORNIA, WHICH
ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE BAJA MOUNTAIN PASSAGES INTO ITS
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE ROUGH TO
10 FT WHILE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS TO 12
FT N OF CABO SAN LAZARO AND TO 8 FT NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE
ELSEWHERE IN THE S AND SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO STORM-FORCE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THEN, GALE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. LARGE SWELL WILL REACH
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS INTO SUN, WITH VERY
ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ALSO
ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, LOCALLY MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH WED.
PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE. A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING TODAY WILL RESULT IN ROUGH
SEAS SPREADING TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS AND DEEP INTO THE TROPICS TO
14N. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS FROM JUST N OF THE ITCZ TO 21N DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE ROUGH TO
10 FT PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER AND SEAS MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FAR
WESTERN TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH MON ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS THAT
ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, A
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 16 FT TO AFFECT THE OPEN WATERS FROM
07N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W SUN EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT.
RAMOS
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