455
AXPZ20 KNHC 101527
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
..GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF OF AMERICA, WHILE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. STRONG TO GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL TROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT
TONIGHT AND 20 FT BY SUN MORNING. BY SUN AFTERNOON, WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH STORM-FORCE SPEEDS WITH SEAS PEAKING TO 24 FT
DURING THE SUN EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE
EARLY MON MORNING AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE EVENING. AFTERWARD,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N115W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 10N115W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 08N TO 16N AND W OF 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA, AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS RESULTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE N TO NW WINDS ALONG THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHICH
ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE BAJA MOUNTAIN PASSAGES INTO ITS
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE ROUGH TO
10 FT WHILE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS TO 12
FT N OF CABO SAN LAZARO AND TO 8 FT NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE
ELSEWHERE IN THE S AND SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TO STORM-FORCE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THEN, GALE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. LARGE SWELL WILL REACH AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS INTO SUN, WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS
NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ALSO
ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, LOCALLY MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH WED.
PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE. A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING TODAY WILL RESULT IN ROUGH
SEAS SPREADING TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS AND DEEP INTO THE TROPICS TO
14N. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS FROM JUST N OF THE ITCZ TO 21N DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE ROUGH TO
10 FT PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER AND SEAS MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FAR
WESTERN TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH MON ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS THAT
ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, A
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 16 FT TO AFFECT THE OPEN WATERS FROM
07N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W SUN EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT.
ERA
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