724
AXPZ20 KNHC 110405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
..GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING
STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA ARE FUNNELING TROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS,
WHICH IS RESULTING IN GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 FT TONIGHT
AND 22 FT BY SUN MORNING WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH STORM-
FORCE SPEEDS, LEADING TO PEAK SEAS OF 25 FT BY SUN NIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE EARLY MON MORNING AND PREVAIL THROUGH
TUE EVENING. AFTERWARD, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
WED NIGHT.
..GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA, AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WESTERN MEXICO IS RESULTING IN GALE-FORCE NW WINDS,
MAINLY N OF 29N. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NW WINDS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT ARE NOTED
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THESE WARNINGS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N96W TO 09N112W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N112W TO 09N126W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 85W, AND FROM 07N TO
17N BETWEEN 112W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE UPCOMING STORM
WARNING OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, AND THE GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED TO THE GALE WARNING
DESCRIBED ABOVE, IS ALSO RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA MOUNTAIN PASSAGES INTO ITS
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA'S OFFSHORE
WATERS ARE IN THE ROUGH RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE S AND SW
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY SUN, THEN STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NW
WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MON. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA ARE
FUNNELING TROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS, WHICH IS RESULTING IN GALE-
FORCE N TO NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 FT TONIGHT AND 22 FT BY SUN MORNING WHEN
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH STORM- FORCE SPEEDS, LEADING TO PEAK
SEAS OF 25 FT BY SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE
EARLY MON MORNING AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE EVENING. AFTERWARD,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ALSO
ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH WED.
PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE. A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEAS SPREADING TO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL RESUME THU NIGHT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS AND DEEP INTO THE TROPICS TO
15N. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS FROM JUST N OF THE ITCZ TO 21N DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE ROUGH TO
10 FT PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER AND SEAS MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FAR
WESTERN TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH MON ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS THAT
ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, A
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 14 FT TO AFFECT THE OPEN WATERS FROM
07N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W SUN EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT.
RAMOS
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