871
AXPZ20 KNHC 111005
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0940 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
..GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING
STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA ARE FUNNELING TROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS,
WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH STORM-FORCE THIS MORNING WHILE SEAS WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD TO 12 FT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BACK TO GALE-FORCE BY MON MORNING. PEAK SEAS DURING THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE 25 FT.
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TUE EVENING, AND
RESUME AGAIN BY THU MORNING DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A SECOND
COLD FRONT.
..GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA, AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS RESULTING IN
GALE-FORCE NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY N
OF 29N. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NW WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE
GULF. ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN THE AREAS OF STRONGEST
WINDS. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING, HOWEVER FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GULF UNTIL MON
EVENING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THESE WARNINGS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N94W TO 06N106W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N106W TO 09N124W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 85W, AND FROM 06N TO
19N BETWEEN 112W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE UPCOMING STORM
WARNING OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, AND THE GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED TO THE GALE WARNING
DESCRIBED ABOVE, IS ALSO RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA MOUNTAIN PASSAGES INTO ITS
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA'S OFFSHORE
WATERS ARE IN THE ROUGH RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE S AND SW
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY SUN, THEN STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NW
WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MON. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA ARE
FUNNELING TROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS, WHICH IS RESULTING IN GALE-
FORCE N TO NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 FT TONIGHT AND 22 FT BY SUN MORNING WHEN
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH STORM- FORCE SPEEDS, LEADING TO PEAK
SEAS OF 25 FT BY SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE
EARLY MON MORNING AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE EVENING. AFTERWARD,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING
THE GULF OF PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH WED
ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL FROM A STRONG GAP WIND
EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU. THE
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL ALSO RESULT
IN ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDING
TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL RESUME THU NIGHT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS AND DEEP INTO THE TROPICS TO
16N. THE GRADIENT OF PRESSURE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH NE TO E WINDS FROM
JUST N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 25N. SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE
ROUGH TO 9 FT PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE FAR WESTERN TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH MON ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS THAT ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, A
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 16 FT TO AFFECT THE OPEN WATERS FROM
07N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. NEW NW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN WATERS W OF 130W TUE
EVENING AND SUBSIDE THU EVENING.
RAMOS
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