125
AXPZ20 KNHC 111521
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
..GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING
STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA ARE FUNNELING TROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS,
WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH STORM-FORCE THIS MORNING WHILE SEAS WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD TO 12 FT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BACK TO GALE-FORCE BY MON MORNING. PEAK SEAS DURING THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE 25 FT.
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TUE EVENING, AND
RESUME AGAIN BY THU MORNING DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A SECOND
COLD FRONT.
..GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA, AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS RESULTING IN
GALE-FORCE NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY N
OF 29N. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NW WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE
GULF. ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN THE AREAS OF STRONGEST
WINDS. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING, HOWEVER FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GULF UNTIL MON
EVENING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THESE WARNINGS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 06N104W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N104W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 84W, AND FROM 07N TO 17N AND W OF 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE UPCOMING STORM
WARNING OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, AND THE GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED TO THE GALE WARNING
DESCRIBED ABOVE, IS ALSO RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA MOUNTAIN PASSAGES INTO ITS
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA'S OFFSHORE
WATERS ARE IN THE ROUGH RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE S AND SW
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE NW WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MON. STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MON MORNING. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE MON MORNING AND PREVAIL
THROUGH TUE EVENING. AFTERWARD, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH WED NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WITH ROUGH SEAS
AT TIMES. PULSING FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH WED
ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL FROM A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT
IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU.
THE STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL ALSO
RESULT IN ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDING
TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL RESUME THU NIGHT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS AND DEEP INTO THE TROPICS TO
18N. THE GRADIENT OF PRESSURE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH NE TO E WINDS FROM
JUST N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 25N. SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE
ROUGH PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER AND SEAS MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
FAR WESTERN TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH MON ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS
THAT ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, A STRONG
GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS TO AFFECT THE OPEN WATERS FROM 07N TO 13N
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A NEW
NW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN WATERS W OF 130W TUE EVENING AND
SUBSIDE THU EVENING.
ERA
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