230
AXPZ20 KNHC 120405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: STORM-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF
1036 MB CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO IS
RESULTING IN THESE CONDITIONS. VERY ROUGH SEAS REACHING TO
NEAR 19 FT (5.5 M ) HAVE ALREADY BUILD IN THE GULF WITH THESE
STORM-FORCE WINDS. GALE-FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF UP TO
45 KT REACH DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 94W AND
96W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 11 TO 17 FT (3.5
TO 5 M). THE STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO STRONG
GALE WINDS BY AROUND 12Z ON MON AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT WEAKENS
JUST ENOUGH. GALE-FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TUE NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY SHRINKING IN
COVERAGE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKENS WHILE IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD. SEAS AT THAT TIME ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SUBSIDE
TO 7 TO 10 FT ( 2 TO 3 M) IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL. BY THU
MORNING, GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RESUME DUE TO A
STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MARINERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS BROUGHT
ON BY THE STORM AND GALE-FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO NORTHERN
PANAMA AND EXTREMED SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO 09N84W TO 06N95W TO
07N107W AND TO 09N115W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N122W TO 08N136W
AND TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONEVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 139W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE
STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED TO THE GALE WARNING
DESCRIBED ABOVE IS ALSO RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA MOUNTAIN PASSAGES INTO ITS
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA'S OFFSHORE WATERS
ARE IN THE ROUGH RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE
OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON MORNING. VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS REGION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE ON MON MORNING AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AFTERWARD, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON
THU, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MON. AFTER THAT, FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH
THE WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
WITH ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. PULSING FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WELL INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WED ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL FROM A
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. PULSING MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA THROUGH THU. THE STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL ALSO RESULT IN ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR STARTING TONIGHT AND
SUBSIDING TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL RESUME THU NIGHT
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS NORTH OF THE AREA OFFSHORE OF
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF 19N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. THE
GRADIENT OF PRESSURE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE ITCZ TO NEAR 25N. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE MODERATE
TO ROUGH RANGE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOSTLY ROUGH IN LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WEST OF 133W. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE.
A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 116W FROM 15N TO 16N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN
113W AND 120W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM TO 13N TO 15N BETWEEN
106W AND 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
FAR WESTERN TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH MON ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS
THAT ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, A STRONG
GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS TO AFFECT THE OPEN WATERS FROM 07N TO 13N
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W FROM THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A NEW SET OF LONG-
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN WATERS WEST OF
ABOUT 126W FROM MON INTO WED WHILE DECAYING.
AGUIRRE
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