740
AXPZ20 KNHC 120903
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: STORM-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF
1036 MB CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO IS
RESULTING IN THESE CONDITIONS. VERY ROUGH SEAS DEVELOPED FROM
THESE WIND CONDITIONS ARE REACHING TO NEAR 19 FT (5.5 M ).
GALE-FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF UP TO 45 KT REACH
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SEAS WITH
THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 11 TO 17 FT (3.5 TO 5 M) AS
NOTED IN A 0530Z ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS. THE STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE WINDS BY 12Z THIS
MORNING AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT WEAKENS JUST ENOUGH. GALE-FORCE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TUE NIGHT
WHILE GRADUALLY SHRINKING IN COVERAGE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEAKENS WHILE IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. SEAS AT THAT TIME
ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 11 FT (2 TO 3.5 M) IN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST SWELL. BY THU MORNING, GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WILL RESUME DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF OF AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. MARINERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY
ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE
STORM AND GALE-FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO NORTHERN
PANAMA AND EXTREMED SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO 08N86W TO 05N94W TO
06N110W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N121W TO 08N130W AND TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 91W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A
STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND
A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION IS BRINGING FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
SEEPING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSAGES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
INTO ITS OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL SECTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER
THE SOUTHERN SECTION. GENERALLY PER OVERNIGHT ASCAT SATELLITE
DATA PASSES LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THESE SAME WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
GALE-FORCE SPEEDS. VERY ROUGH SEAS PRODUCED BY THESE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY THU MORNING, GALE-FORCE
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RESUME IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION
DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE STORM AND GALE- FORCE WINDS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY
THE PRESENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM EVENT ARE IMPACTING MOST
OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. PULSING
FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
WILL SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST SWELL DECAYS. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PERSIST ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS NORTH OF THE AREA OFFSHORE OF
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF 19N AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. THE
GRADIENT OF PRESSURE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE ITCZ TO NEAR 25N AS DEPICTED IN SATELLITE DATA PASSES FROM
0456Z AND 0535Z. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE MODERATE TO
ROUGH RANGE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOSTLY ROUGH SEAS IN LONG-
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WEST NORTH OF 14N AND WEST OF 132W. WINDS
ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE.
A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N119W TO 08N118W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH FROM
13N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N99W TO 10N107.5W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MOSTLY FRESH TRADE WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
THE ONGOING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN
95W AND 110W FROM THROUGH TUE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR 135W. A
SET OF LONG- PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
WATERS WEST OF ABOUT 126W FROM TODAY INTO TUE WHILE DECAYING,
HOWEVER, YET ANOTHER SET OF LONG- PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTRUDE INTO THE FAR WESTERN WATERS STARTING
WED NIGHT.
AGUIRRE
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