933
AXPZ20 KNHC 121518
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING TO BELOW STORM-FORCE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE
MEXICO HAS WEAKENED TO 1034 MB. STILL, WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS OF
UP TO 19 FT. POWERFUL GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, THEN
DECREASE SOME TONIGHT INTO TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES TO THE EAST, BUT REMAIN ABOVE GALE FORCE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. VERY ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THESE GALES WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD TO AS FAR AS 08N TONIGHT INTO TUE. CONDITIONS WILL
BRIEFLY IMPROVE WED BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GULF OF AMERICA WED NIGHT, USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-
FORCE GAP WINDS THU INTO FRI. MARINERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS BROUGHT
ON BY THE STORM AND GALE- FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N90W TO 06N108W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N108W TO 08N118W AND FROM 09N122W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N
BETWEEN 99W AND 109W AND FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN THE AREA IS LEADING TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE SINALOA IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MEXICO AND A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION IS
BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THESE SAME
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PREVAIL INTO TUE NIGHT.
BY THU MORNING, GALE FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RESUME IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MARINERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS BROUGHT
ON BY THE STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION ALONG
WITH ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALES IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR. FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE. LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA IS GENERATED SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF SHORE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS GENERATED
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUE NIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST SWELL
DECAYS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS DOMINATING WATERS N OF 19N AND W
OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM JUST
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 25N. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 7 TO 10
FT, IN A MIX OF WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. FARTHER N,
THE NW SWELL IS CAUSING ROUGH SEAS TO CONTINUE. N OF 07N AND E OF
105W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION WITH GALE-FORCE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS,
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN THAT
REGION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE, THE
ONGOING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN
95W AND 110W INTO TUE NIGHT. A SET OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTRUDE INTO THE FAR WESTERN WATERS
STARTING WED NIGHT.
KONARIK
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