355
AXPZ20 KNHC 122125 RRA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A 1033 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER
NE MEXICO, MAINTAINING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE WINDS OF
35 TO 40 KT CONTINUING THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, WITH VERY
ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 18 FT. POWERFUL GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, THEN DECREASE SOME TONIGHT INTO TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE EAST, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE GALE FORCE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. VERY ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THESE GALES WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO AS FAR AS 08N TONIGHT INTO TUE. CONDITIONS
WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE WED BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE GULF OF AMERICA WED NIGHT, USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
GALE- FORCE GAP WINDS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING. MARINERS ARE
URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE STORM AND GALE- FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N86W TO 06N96W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 06N105W TO 07N119W WHERE IT IS BROKEN
BY A SURFACE TROUGH AND 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N122W. THE ITCZ THEN
RESUMES FROM 10N124W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W AND 97W, AND ALSO FROM 10N
TO 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND
A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION IS BRINGING FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THESE SAME WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO TUE NIGHT. BY THU
MORNING, GALE FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RESUME IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS ARE
URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE GALE FORCE WINDS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY
GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. FRESH N WINDS ARE NOTED IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
ELSEWHERE. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA IS
GENERATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF SHORE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS GENERATED
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUE NIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST SWELL
DECAYS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 07N110W TO 11N111W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND 112W. BROAD RIDGING
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS DOMINATING WATERS N OF 19N AND W OF 120W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO NEAR 25N. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 7 TO 10 FT, IN A MIX
OF WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. FARTHER N, THE NW SWELL
IS CAUSING ROUGH SEAS TO CONTINUE. N OF 05N AND E OF 110W, FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE ONGOING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH GALE-FORCE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS, DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN THAT
REGION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE, THE
ONGOING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN
90W AND 110W INTO TUE NIGHT. A SET OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTRUDE INTO THE FAR WESTERN WATERS
STARTING WED NIGHT.
KONARIK
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