705
AXPZ20 KNHC 130314
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0314 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A 1030 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED
OVER N MEXICO, MAINTAINING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE WINDS OF
35 TO 40 KT CONTINUING THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, WITH VERY
ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 18 FT. THIS POWERFUL GAP WINDS WILL DECREASE
SOME TONIGHT INTO TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO
THE EAST, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE GALE FORCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
VERY ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THESE GALES WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO
AS FAR AS 04N TONIGHT INTO TUE. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE
WED BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA
WED NIGHT, SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY MORNING. MARINERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY
ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE
STORM AND GALE- FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N88W TO 06N95W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 04N113W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
11N123W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03N TO 09N EAST OF 96W, AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W
AND 137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION IS BRINGING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 2 TO
4 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THESE SAME WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO TUE NIGHT. BY THU
MORNING, GALE FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RESUME IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS ARE
URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE GALE FORCE WINDS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY
GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WESTERN COLOMBIA IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM OF SHORE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS GENERATED
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUE NIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST SWELL
DECAYS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N111W TO 10N112.5W. THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07.5N TO
16N BETWEEN 104W AND 113W. BROAD RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A 1028
MB HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS DOMINATING WATERS N OF 19N
AND W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE
ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 25N. SEAS
IN THIS REGION ARE 7 TO 10 FT, IN A MIX OF WIND WAVES AND LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL. FARTHER N, THE NW SWELL IS CAUSING ROUGH SEAS TO
CONTINUE. N OF 05N AND E OF 110W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION WITH GALE-
FORCE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS, DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, WINDS AND
SEAS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN THAT
REGION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE, THE
ONGOING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING
ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W
INTO TUE NIGHT. A SET OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO INTRUDE INTO THE FAR WESTERN WATERS STARTING WED
NIGHT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG-PEERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY
ENTER OUR NW WATERS FRI NIGHT.
KRV
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