917
AXPZ20 KNHC 130920
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A 1030 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED
OVER N MEXICO, MAINTAINING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE WINDS OF
35 TO 40 KT CONTINUING THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, WITH VERY
ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 14 FT. THIS GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE EAST, BUT
WILL REMAIN ABOVE GALE FORCE THROUGH TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED BY THESE GALES WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO AS FAR AS 03N
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE WED BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA WED NIGHT, SUPPORTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE STORM AND GALE-
FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N104W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N104W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 101W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS DEPICTED FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION IS
BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST ASCAT. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THESE SAME WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC UNTIL TONIGHT. BY THU
MORNING, GALE FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RESUME IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS ARE
URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE GALE FORCE WINDS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED BY GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IMPACTING THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF SHORE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS GENERATED
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST SWELL DECAYS.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N123W TO 14N123W. THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG IT AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND 118W. OTHERWISE, BROAD RIDGING
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS
DOMINATING WATERS N OF 19N AND W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO NEAR 23N. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 6 TO 9 FT, IN A MIX OF
WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. FARTHER N, THE NW SWELL IS
CAUSING ROUGH SEAS TO CONTINUE. N OF 06N AND E OF 110W, MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE ONGOING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH GALE- FORCE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS, DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. ROUGH SEAS IN
THAT REGION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE,
THE ONGOING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING
ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W
INTO TONIGHT. A SET OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO INTRUDE INTO THE FAR WESTERN WATERS STARTING WED
NIGHT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG-PEERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY
ENTER OUR NW WATERS FRI NIGHT.
KRV
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