743
AXPZ20 KNHC 131520
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A 1028 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED
OVER N MEXICO, MAINTAINING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM LAST NIGHT INDICATED
WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT CONTINUING THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION,
WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 14 FT. THESE GAP WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES TO THE EAST, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE GALE FORCE THROUGH
TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THESE GALES WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD TO AS FAR AS 04N TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE WED BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA WED NIGHT, SUPPORTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING. MARINERS ARE URGED
TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE GALE-FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N96W TO 07N120W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N120W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND A PAIR OF TROUGHS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
REGION IS BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACCORDING
TO ASCAT PASSES FROM LAST NIGHT. SEAS ARE 2 TO 5 FT OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE PRESENT
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND AWAY FROM THE WARNING AREA
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. SEAS OF 4-7 FT IN LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THESE SAME WATERS, EXCEPT FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE SEAS ARE 2-4 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FARTHER OUT IN
THE PACIFIC IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF
103W AND S OF 18N.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC UNTIL TONIGHT. BY THU
MORNING, GALE FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RESUME IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS ARE
URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE GALE FORCE WINDS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION ALONG
WITH 6-8 FT SEAS AT TIMES. SEAS OF SIMILAR HEIGHT GENERATED BY
GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WESTERN COLOMBIA IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM OF SHORE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS GENERATED
6-8 FT SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST SWELL
DECAYS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 10N114W TO 16N109W. THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO
18N BETWEEN 104W AND 118W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FEW SMALL SURFACE TROUGHS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN
120W AND 135W. OTHERWISE, BROAD RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A 1027
MB HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS DOMINATING WATERS N OF 19N
AND W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE
ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 23N. SEAS
IN THIS REGION ARE 6 TO 8 FT, IN A MIX OF WIND WAVES AND LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL. FARTHER N, THE NW SWELL IS CAUSING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS TO CONTINUE. N OF 06N AND E OF 110W, MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
GALE-FORCE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS, DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. ROUGH SEAS IN
THAT REGION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE,
THE ONGOING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING
ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W
INTO TONIGHT. A SET OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO INTRUDE INTO THE FAR WESTERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SET OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY ENTER OUR
NW WATERS FRI NIGHT.
ADAMS
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