791
AXPZ20 KNHC 132111 RRA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A 1028 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED
OVER N MEXICO, MAINTAINING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION, RESULTING IN WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT CONTINUING
THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 12
FT. THESE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE EAST, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
GALE FORCE THROUGH TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THESE GALES
WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO AS FAR AS 04N TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE WED BEFORE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA WED NIGHT,
SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WITH THIS NEXT EVENT LOOK TO PEAK AT 40 TO 45 KT THURSDAY
EVENING, ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 18 FT. MARINERS ARE
URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE GALE-FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N97W TO 07N118W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N118W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND A PAIR OF TROUGHS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
REGION IS BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NW WINDS
ARE LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG IN THE CENTRAL GULF ACCORDING TO
ASCAT PASSES FROM THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE 2 TO 5 FT OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE GULF.
ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS W OF 110W AND S
OF 19N, DRIVEN BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH S OF THE REGION. GENTLE TO
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND AWAY FROM THE WARNING AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. SEAS OF 4-7 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER
THESE SAME WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH FARTHER OUT IN THE PACIFIC IS IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF 103W AND S OF 18N.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC UNTIL TONIGHT. BY THU MORNING, GALE
FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RESUME IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS BROUGHT
ON BY THE GALE FORCE WINDS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
ALONG WITH 6-8 FT SEAS AT TIMES. SEAS OF SIMILAR HEIGHT
GENERATED BY GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IMPACTING THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, CONFIRMED BY A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
ELSEWHERE. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
100 NM OF SHORE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS GENERATED
6-8 FT SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST SWELL
DECAYS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 10N114W TO 16N109W. THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO
18N BETWEEN 103W AND 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FEW SMALL
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W. OTHERWISE, BROAD RIDGING
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS
DOMINATING WATERS N OF 19N AND W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO NEAR 20N. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 6 TO 8 FT, IN A MIX OF
WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. FARTHER N, THE NW SWELL IS
CAUSING MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS TO CONTINUE. N OF 04N AND
E OF 110W, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ONGOING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH GALE-FORCE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS, DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. ROUGH SEAS IN THAT
REGION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE, THE
ONGOING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING
ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A SET OF LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTRUDE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY ENTER OUR NW WATERS FRI NIGHT.
ADAMS
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