930
AXPZ20 KNHC 140315
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A 1025 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED
OVER N MEXICO, MAINTAINING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION, RESULTING IN WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT
CONTINUING THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS
OF UP TO 11 FT. THESE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKEN AND SLIDES TO THE EAST.
ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THESE GALES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE WED BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA WED NIGHT,
SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WITH THIS NEXT EVENT MAY PEAK AT 40 TO 45 KT THURSDAY
EVENING, ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 18 FT. MARINERS ARE
URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE GALE- FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N84W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
08.5N113.5W TO 07.5N118W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07.5N118W TO
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N
BETWEEN 108W AND 116W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND A PAIR OF TROUGHS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
REGION IS BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS
ARE 2 TO 4 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND AREAS
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE GULF. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE
WINDS W OF 110W AND S OF 19N PREVAIL, DRIVEN BY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH S
OF THE REGION. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE PRESENT
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND AWAY FROM THE WARNING AREA
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. SEAS OF 4-8 FT IN LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THESE SAME WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FARTHER OUT IN THE
PACIFIC IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF 105W
AND S OF 19N.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC UNTIL TONIGHT. BY THU MORNING, GALE
FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RESUME IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION SAT NIGHT. MARINERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS BROUGHT
ON BY THE GALE FORCE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
ALONG WITH 5-7 FT SEAS AT TIMES. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT GENERATED BY
GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS
ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, CONFIRMED BY A RECENT ASCAT
PASS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF
SHORE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS GENERATED 6-8 FT SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. THESE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST SWELL DECAYS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO 16N111W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 08.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 124W AND 132.5W.
OTHERWISE, BROAD RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA IS DOMINATING WATERS N OF 19N AND W OF 120W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS
FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 22N. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE
6 TO 8 FT, IN A MIX OF WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL.
FARTHER N, THE NW SWELL IS CAUSING MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
TO CONTINUE. N OF 07N AND E OF 110W, MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION WITH GALE- FORCE
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS, DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. ROUGH SEAS IN THAT
REGION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE, THE
ONGOING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING
ROUGH SEAS TO THE WATERS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A SET OF LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTRUDE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY ENTER OUR NW WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT.
KRV
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