517
AXPZ20 KNHC 140929
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LATEST
ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THAT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND PEAK WINDS ARE 30 KT. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT, SUPPORTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WITH THIS
EVENT MAY PEAK AT 40 TO 45 KT THURSDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH VERY
ROUGH SEAS UP TO 18 FT. MARINERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY
ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE
GALE-FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N83.5W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR
09N113W TO 07.5N118W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07.5N118W TO
08.5N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 09.5N
BETWEEN 108W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1024MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND A PAIR OF TROUGHS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
REGION IS BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST ASCAT. SEAS ARE 2 TO 5 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE GULF. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS W OF 110W AND S OF 19N PREVAIL, DRIVEN BY
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND A
SURFACE TROUGH S OF THE REGION. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND AWAY
FROM THE WARNING AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. SEAS OF
4-8 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THESE SAME WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FARTHER OUT IN THE PACIFIC IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS W OF 105W AND S OF 18N.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS. BY THU MORNING, GALE FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RESUME
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION SAT NIGHT. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE GALE FORCE WINDS. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
ALONG WITH 6-9 FT SEAS AT TIMES. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT GENERATED BY
GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. MODERATE N WINDS ARE NOTED
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, CONFIRMED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF SHORE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE
THE NEXT 5 DAY. THE STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS GENERATED MODERATE SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. THESE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TODAY AS THE NORTHWEST SWELL DECAYS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N113W TO 16N111W. THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN
105W AND 114W. OTHERWISE, BROAD RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A 1030
MB HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS DOMINATING WATERS N OF 20N
AND W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE
ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 23N. SEAS
IN THIS REGION ARE 6 TO 8 FT, IN A MIX OF WIND WAVES AND LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL. FARTHER N, THE NW SWELL IS CAUSING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS TO CONTINUE. NORTH OF 04N AND E OF 110W,
MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH GALE-FORCE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS, DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. ROUGH SEAS IN THAT
REGION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE, THE
RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT JUST ENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SET OF LONG- PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN WATERS TODAY.
ANOTHER SET OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY ENTER OUR
NW WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT.
KRV
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