557
AXPZ20 KNHC 141557
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATES NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO 13N WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. CONDITIONS WILL
SLIGHTLY IMPROVE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT A NEW GAP WIND EVENT
REACHING GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED BY THU MORNING WITH SEAS QUICKLY
BUILDING TO NEAR 15 FT. THIS EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WITH THIS EVENT ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40 TO
45 KT THURSDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 17 OR 18
FT. MARINERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE GALE-FORCE WINDS. GALE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N83W TO 05N95W TO 09.5N111W
TO 08N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N120W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN
103W AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND A PAIR OF TROUGHS NEAR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA REGION IS BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACCORDING TO ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT. SEAS ARE 2 TO 5 FT OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE
WINDS W OF 110W AND S OF 19N PREVAIL, DRIVEN BY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH S
OF THE REGION. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE PRESENT
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND AWAY FROM THE WARNING AREA
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. SEAS OF 4-7 FT IN LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THESE SAME WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FARTHER OUT IN THE
PACIFIC IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF 103W
AND S OF 18N.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. BY THU MORNING, GALE FORCE NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WILL RESUME IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION DUE TO A
STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT TO THE WATERS
S OF 21N AND W OF 110W. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION SAT NIGHT. MARINERS ARE URGED
TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE GALE FORCE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
ALONG WITH 6-8 FT SEAS AT TIMES. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT GENERATED BY
GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF SHORE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS GENERATED
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR. THESE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AS THE
NORTHWEST SWELL DECAYS, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SEAS WILL
OCCUR IN THESE WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 10N111W TO 16N111W. THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 102W AND 113W. OTHERWISE, BROAD RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS DOMINATING WATERS N
OF 15N AND W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR
23N. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 6 TO 8 FT, IN A MIX OF WIND WAVES
AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. FARTHER N, THE NW SWELL IS CAUSING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS TO CONTINUE N OF 10N AND W OF 130W.
NORTH OF 04N AND E OF 110W, MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING TEHUANTEPEC GAP
WIND EVENT, DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. ROUGH SEAS IN THIS
REGION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE, THE
RESIDUAL MODERATE SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT JUST ENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
OCCURS WITH THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT, IMPACTING
SIMILAR AREAS. A SET OF LONG- PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN WATERS TODAY. ANOTHER SET
OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY ENTER OUR NW WATERS
LATE FRI NIGHT.
GR
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