897
AXPZ20 KNHC 142109
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
SHOWS N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO AROUND 13N WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. CONDITIONS WILL
SLIGHTLY IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT A NEW GAP WIND EVENT REACHING STRONG
GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED BY THU MORNING WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING
TO NEAR 15 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA TONIGHT AND THU
WILL SUPPORT THIS GAP WIND EVENT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT
40 TO 45 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS UP TO 17 OR 18 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. SEAS
GENERATED FROM THIS EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC
AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W.
MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE
AFFECTED WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N95W TO 09N110W TO
08N121W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N121W TO 11N104W TO BEYOND
09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 102W AND 108W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO N WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN
NW SWELL BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS DATA
INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF SAN JOSE DEL CABO WITH SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWEHRE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO NOTED NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES. OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ANOTHER GALE FORCE EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU MORNING THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE, SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. FRESH NW
WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF CABO CORRIENTES THROUGH
THU. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS. FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT TO THE WATERS BETWEEN
THE REVILLAGIGEDO AND THE CLARION ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATION OF FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 10N87W.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN
NORTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ROUGH SEAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS
WITH ROUGH SEAS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. PULSING MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
THROUGH THE THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS GENERATED BY THE NEXT GAP WIND
EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC COMBINED WITH SEAS GENERATED IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR LATE THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N111W TO 10N112W. THIS TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH
TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT
108W WHILE A COUPLE ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
WELL N OF AREA HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N
OF 15N AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR
23N. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 6 TO 8 FT, IN A MIX OF WIND WAVES
AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THIS SWELL EVENT IS AFFECTING MOST OF
THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 8 TO 11
FT N OF 20N AND W 135W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
BETWEEN 10N TO 20N AND BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WHILE REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAINLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS WILL BE RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND NW WATERS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU NIGHT. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL
EVENT WILL REACH THE NW FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO 11 OR 12 FT.
GR/BA
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