188
AXPZ20 KNHC 150349
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSSHOWS N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND DOWNWIND TO AROUND 13N WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT A NEW
GAP WIND EVENT REACHING STRONG GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED BY THU
MORNING WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO NEAR 15 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
IN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF AMERICA TONIGHT AND THU WILL SUPPORT THIS GAP WIND EVENT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40 TO 45 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THU NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 17 OR 18 FT ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS EVENT WILL
SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THIS GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83.5W TO 08N105W TO 07N123W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N123W TO 09N104W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO N WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
IN NW SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF SAN JOSE
DEL CABO WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWEHRE ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO
NOTED NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A NEW GAP WIND EVENT REACHING STRONG GALE
FORCE IS EXPECTED IN THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION BY THU MORNING WITH
SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO NEAR 15 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO, IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF AMERICA TONIGHT AND THU WILL SUPPORT THIS GAP WIND EVENT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40 TO 45 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THU NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 17 OR 18 FT ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS EVENT WILL
SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THIS GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING. ANOTHER
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY ON
SUN MORNING.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 10N87W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN THESE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH ROUGH SEAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. PULSING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA THROUGH THE THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS GENERATED BY THE NEXT
GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC COMBINED WITH SEAS
GENERATED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR LATE THU THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N112W TO 10N112W. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. SEAS WITHIN THIS WINDS ARE AROUND 8 FT. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED WELL N OF AREA HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS N OF 16N AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO NEAR 23N. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 6 TO 9 FT, IN A MIX OF
WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THIS SWELL EVENT IS
AFFECTING MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W, WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT N OF 14N AND W 134W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST NEARLY STATIONARY. MAINLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND
NW WATERS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU NIGHT. ANOTHER
LONG PERIOD SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE NW FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO 11 OR 12 FT.
KRV
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