714
AXPZ20 KNHC 150919
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0919 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
STRONG GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING
TO NEAR 15 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
IN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF AMERICA WILL SUPPORT THIS GAP WIND EVENT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40 TO 45 KT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 17 OR 18 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
EVENT. SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM
THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR
WEST AS 107W. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT,
AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83.5W TO 07N105W TO 07N126W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N126W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 103W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO N WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
IN NW SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE VICINITY
OF SAN JOSE DEL CABO WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWEHRE ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO
NOTED NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
TEHUNATEPEC REGION TODAY WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO NEAR 15
FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL SUPPORT THIS GAP WIND
EVENT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40 TO 45 KT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 17 OR 18 FT ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS EVENT. SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL
AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 107W. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS GAP
WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING. ANOTHER TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND
EVENT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE SAT NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 10N88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN THESE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. PULSING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS GENERATED BY THE NEXT GAP
WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC COMBINED WITH SEAS
GENERATED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR LATE TODAY THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N114W TO 11N112W. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS PREVAIL ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ASCAT. SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE
AROUND 8 FT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL N OF AREA HAS
A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 18N AND W OF
110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM
JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 23N. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 7 TO
9 FT, IN A MIX OF WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THIS SWELL
EVENT IS AFFECTING MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W, WITH
THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT N OF 14N AND W 130W. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST NEARLY STATIONARY. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND
NW WATERS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER LONG
PERIOD SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE NW FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO 11 OR 12 FT.
KRV
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