561
AXPZ20 KNHC 151539
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO 16 OR 17 FT BY
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL SUPPORT THIS
GAP WIND EVENT. SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL
AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W ON FRI. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY AND EARLY FRI SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO
AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOOKING
AHEAD, ANOTHER STRONG GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS SLATED TO
BEGIN ON SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 07N90W TO 08N115W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N115W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 85W TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W.
THE LATTER IS RELATED TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
17N114W TO 11N112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WITH SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FT IN NW SWELL. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE
VICINITY OF SAN JOSE DEL CABO WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWEHRE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO NOTED NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES. OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE,
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN THESE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. PULSING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS GENERATED BY THE GAP WIND EVENT
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC COMBINED WITH SEAS GENERATED IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR LATE TODAY THROUGH LATE FRI. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N114W TO 11N112W. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS PREVAIL ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS
ARE AROUND 8 FT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL N OF AREA
HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W
OF 110W. A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT, PRIMARILY IN LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 12N AND W OF 130W.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE RELATED TO THIS FEATURE.
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
AND NW WATERS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER
LONG PERIOD SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE NW FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO 11 OR 12 FT.
GR
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