787
AXPZ20 KNHC 152120
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS OF 40 KT ARE LIKELY BLOWING ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 13N. UNFORTUNATELY
SCATTEROMETER DATA MISSED THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN ALTIMETER PASS
INDICATES SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. A BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA SUPPORTS THIS GAP WIND
EVENT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 45 KT, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 OR 17 FT BY TONIGHT. SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS
EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS
8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W BY FRI MORNING.
MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT, AND
TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT,
REACHING GALE FORCE IS SLATED TO BEGIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 07N85W TO 05N100W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N100W TO 08N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 85W
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND
112W. THE LATTER IS RELATED TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
18N111W TO 10N112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO N WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
IN NW SWELL. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS
OF 3 TO 4 FT. GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWEHRE
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 30N AND W OF 114W. MODERATE NW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO NOTED NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. OUTSIDE OF THE
TEHUANTEPEC AREA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW
SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE,
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN THESE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN NORTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. PULSING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS GENERATED BY THE GAP WIND EVENTS
IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRI WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO 11 OR 12 FT. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 18N111W TO 10N112W. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
BASED ON SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL N OF AREA HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 110W. A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. SEAS OF 8 TO 9
FT, PRIMARILY IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS FROM
12N TO 28N W OF 131W. THIS SWELL EVENT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH BY SUN. MAINLY
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE RELATED
TO THIS FEATURE. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND NW WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO LESS
THAN 8 FT BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL EVENT WILL REACH
THE NW FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT, WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING
TO 11 OR 12 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY FRI NIGHT, EXTENDING FROM 30N138W TO BEYOND
22N140W BY SAT MORNING, AND FROM 30N135W TO 21N140W BY SUN
MORNING, THEN IT WILL STALL. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE MODERATE W TO NW
AND ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page