381
AXPZ20 KNHC 160920
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IN ADDITION, THE MOST RECENT
ALTIMETER PASS CONFIRMED SEAS TO 16 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF THESE
WINDS. THIS EVENT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY, AND
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TODAY. A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF AMERICA SUPPORTS THIS GAP WIND EVENT. SEAS GENERATED FROM
THIS EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W BY THIS
MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END EARLY TODAY. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA THIS WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT MOVES SE, A GAP WIND EVENT OF
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN SAT NIGHT. MARINE
INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE GAP WIND EVENTS AND
TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO 07N87W TO 04N107W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N107W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 08N E OF 90W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO N WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
IN NW SWELL. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACCORDING TO A RECENT
ASCAT PASS, WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT. GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWEHRE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. OUTSIDE OF THE
TEHUANTEPEC AREA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW
SWELL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT WITHIN
THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OBSERVED
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN NORTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR THIS MORNING
WHEN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS PREVAIL WITH MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS WITH ROUGH
SEAS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. SEAS GENERATED BY THE GAP WIND EVENTS IN THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR TODAY WITH SEAS LIKELY
BUILDING TO AROUND 11 FT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N115W TO 18N110W. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 106W
AND 114W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
BASED ON SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED WELL N OF AREA HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 110W. A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH BY SUN. MAINLY
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE. A LONG PERIOD SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE NW
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO AROUND 11 FT
SAT MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. BY SUN MORNING, THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND EXTEND FROM 30N135W TO 19N140W. FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N AND WEST OF 135W. MODERATE W TO
NW AND ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
KRV
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