331
AXPZ20 KNHC 161526
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, ALONG WITH SEAS OF UP TO 13 FT, BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR INDUCING THE GAP WINDS MOVES EASTWARD
FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA AND WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. ROUGH
SEAS WILL ALSO DECAY BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO EASTERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA. THIS WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUGH OF GALE- FORCE
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALES BEGIN EVENING AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MARINE INTERESTS
TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE
AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 07N87W TO 04N100W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N100W TO 08N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 12N
BETWEEN 119W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 88W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE N WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT IN NW SWELL. SIMILAR WINDS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS, PREVAIL OVER TEH
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS ALONG 111W IS CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NEAR THESE ISLANDS, EXTENDING EAST TO OFFSHORE
MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO. FOR THE REMAINING WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW
SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS THERE MAY PULSE TO
NEAR GALE- FORCE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS
GENERATED BY GALE FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR TODAY AND AGAIN SUN AND MON, BRINGING SEAS OF UP TO 10
FT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS WILL PERSIST.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N125W IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE
WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 110W. A GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE
TRADES PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH A ZONE OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS,
ASSOCIATED WITH GAP WINDS, STEMMING FROM THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO, IS PRESENT FROM 06N TO 12N, E OF 108W.
ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO PRESENT IN THIS ZONE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
SEAS DOMINATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH BY SUN. SOME CONVECTION AND LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
REACH THE NW WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT SAT MORNING,
CORRESPONDING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
REACH 30N135W TO 19N140W BY SUN MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL DEVELOP N OF 27N AND W OF
135W TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, MODERATE W TO
NW WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
KONARIK
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