316
AXPZ20 KNHC 162030
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: EARLIER GALES HAVE ENDED IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF AMERICA THIS WEEKEND WILL INITIATE GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT EVENING. THIS GALE WILL BE
PROLONGED, LIKELY LASTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT, WITH WINDS SUN AND
SUN NIGHT PEAKING AT 40 TO 45 KT. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SAT
NIGHT AND BE VERY ROUGH BY SUN. PEAK SEAS OF 15 TO 17 FT ARE
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE
GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 05N94W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N94W TO 08N119W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN
117W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 05N
TO 08N FROM 80W TO 87W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
ALONG 112W IS CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST THESE ISLANDS, EXTENDING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TO OFFSHORE GUERRERO. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IS LEADING TO MODERATE NW WINDS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, OTHERWISE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH
SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE
WINDS. MODERATE N WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH WINDS PULSING TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SUN NIGHT. WINDS IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL PULSE NIGHTLY TO FRESH DURING THIS
PERIOD. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL IMPACT WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR SUN AND
MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N125W IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE
WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 110W. A GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE
TRADES PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH A ZONE OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS,
ASSOCIATED WITH GAP WINDS, STEMMING FROM THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO, IS PRESENT FROM 06N TO 12N, E OF 108W.
ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO PRESENT IN THIS ZONE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
SEAS DOMINATE. WINDS ALONG 140W N OF 25N ARE INCREASING FROM THE
S, TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS, AHEAD OF A SLOWLY-APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY ENHANCED
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH
THE NW WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT SAT MORNING,
CORRESPONDING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
REACH 30N136W TO 19N139W BY SUN MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL DEVELOP N OF 26N AND W OF
134W TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING.
KONARIK
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