542
AXPZ20 KNHC 170317
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE GULF OF AMERICA THIS WEEKEND WILL INITIATE GALE-FORCE GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT EVENING. THIS GALE WILL BE
PROLONGED, LIKELY LASTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT, WITH WINDS SUN AND
SUN NIGHT PEAKING AT 40 TO 45 KT. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SAT
NIGHT AND BE VERY ROUGH BY SUN. PEAK SEAS OF 15 TO 17 FT ARE
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE
GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N90W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 07N90W TO 05N100W TO 09N120W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
08N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ROUGH SEAS, WITH WAVEHEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FT, PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS OFFSHORE OF CHIAPAS AND OAXACA BEYOND 90 NM. THIS IS
MOSTLY A MIX OF SWELL RELATED TO EARLIER GAP WINDS EMERGING FROM
TEHUANTEPEC, AND RECENTLY GENERATED SEAS FROM A LONG PLUME OF
FRESH GAP WINDS OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FARTHER NORTH,
SHARP AND NEGATIVELY- TILTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM
30N130W TO 10N110W. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
GUERRERO TO JALISCO. THE PATTERN IS ALSO SUPPORTING A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND NEAR 16N114W WITH A TROUGH
REACHING NORTHEAST TO SOCORRO ISLAND. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS,
WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE COMBINED FEATURE MOVES
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUN.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS,
BUT ARE 7 TO 10 FT FARTHER DOWNSTREAM TO 92W IN A MIX OF SWELL.
MODERATE N WINDS PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS PULSING TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SUN NIGHT.
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL PULSE NIGHTLY TO FRESH DURING
THIS PERIOD. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALES IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
SUN THROUGH MID WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
EAST OF 110W, MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS, ORIGINATING FROM GAP
WINDS, PERSIST FROM 05N TO 15N. SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT IN THIS AREA,
IN A MIX OF SWELL. GENTLE BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT PERSIST ELSEWHERE
EAST OF 110W. FARTHER NORTH, FRESH SE TO S WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT
ARE NOTED NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 135W, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THIS, 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 33N126W IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF
20N AND WEST OF 110W, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND
GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE S TO SE WINDS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 135W
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. LARGE NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WELL, WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN LATE SAT AND SUN,
BEFORE DISSIPATING INTO MON NORTH OF 25N ALONG 135W. THE WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SAT, BUT THE LARGE NW SWELL
WILL LINGER NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 130W THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE,
A TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SCATTERED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS LOW. EAST OF 110W, THE LARGE SEAS IN PLACE NOW
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORTER PERIOD
SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FT ORIGINATING FROM BOTH THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 13N
EAST OF 105W MON THROUGH MID WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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