551
AXPZ20 KNHC 170920
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL INITIATE GALE-FORCE
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS EVENING. THIS GALE
WILL BE PROLONGED, LIKELY LASTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT, WITH WINDS
SUN AND SUN NIGHT PEAKING AT 40 TO 45 KT. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
TONIGHT AND BE VERY ROUGH BY SUN. PEAK SEAS OF 15 TO 17 FT ARE
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE
GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N90W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N90W TO 05N100W TO 09N120W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
08N TO 18N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, WITH WAVEHEIGHTS FROM 6 TO 8 FT, PERSIST
ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CHIAPAS AND OAXACA BEYOND 90 NM.
THIS IS MOSTLY A MIX OF SWELL RELATED TO EARLIER GAP WINDS EMERGING
FROM TEHUANTEPEC, AND RECENTLY GENERATED SEAS FROM A LONG PLUME
OF FRESH GAP WINDS OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE IN THE WATERS OFF GUERRERO BEYOND 90 NM,
RELATED TO AN UPPER TROUGH FARTHER TO THE WEST. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE COMBINED FEATURE MOVES
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUN.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS,
BUT ARE 7 TO 10 FT FARTHER DOWNSTREAM TO 92W IN A MIX OF SWELL.
MODERATE N WINDS PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS PULSING TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SUN NIGHT.
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL PULSE NIGHTLY TO FRESH DURING
THIS PERIOD. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALES IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
SUN THROUGH MID WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
EAST OF 110W, MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS, ORIGINATING FROM GAP
WINDS, PERSIST FROM 05N TO 15N. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN THIS
AREA, IN A MIX OF SWELL. GENTLE BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT PERSIST
ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W. A HARP AND NEGATIVELY- TILTED MID TO
UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM 30N130W TO 10N110W. ASSOCIATED
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO. THE PATTERN IS ALSO
SUPPORTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND NEAR
16N114W WITH A TROUGH REACHING NORTHEAST TO BETWEEN CLARION AND
SOCORRO ISLANDS. FARTHER NORTH, FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS
AND 7 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE NOTED NORTH OF 25N AND WEST
OF 135W, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. TO THE EAST OF
THIS, 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N126W IS DOMINATING
MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 110W, SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN NW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG S TO SE WINDS NORTH OF 25N
AND WEST OF 135W WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONT TODAY. LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
AS WELL, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SUN, BEFORE DISSIPATING INTO MON NORTH OF 25N ALONG
135W. WHILE THE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT
THE LARGE NW SWELL WILL LINGER NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 130W
THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW. EAST OF 110W,
THE LARGE SEAS IN PLACE NOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY, BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FT ORIGINATING
FROM BOTH THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL DOMINATE THE
WATERS FROM 05N TO 13N EAST OF 105W MON THROUGH MID WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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