540
AXPZ20 KNHC 171557
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS E MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A GULF-OF-AMERICA-TRAVERSING COLD
FRONT WILL INITIATE GALE-FORCE N GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SUN AND SUN NIGHT PEAKING
AT 40 TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS OF 15 TO 17 FT ARE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THIS GALE WILL BE PROLONGED, LIKELY LASTING THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TONIGHT AND BE VERY ROUGH BY SUN.
MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND TAKE
THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER
THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAOFFPZ7.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE COASTAL BOUNDARY OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR 08N83W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 06N90W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECITON IS
NOTED FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 97W-111W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT 19N112W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11N116W. WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
WITH THE SYSTEM, IT DOES HAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OCCURRING FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 1015W-115. AWAY FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS ACROSS FORECAST WATERS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 1-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND 3-6 FT IN NW SWELL OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 3-5 FT IN MAINLY NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. LARGE TO VERY LARGE NW TO N SWELL GENERATED
BY GALES OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT WATERS OFFSHORE
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR SUN THROUGH MID WEEK. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER OVER FORECAST WATERS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED OUR WESTERN BORDER THIS MORNING,
EXTENDING ALONG 140W FROM 11N-19N. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WINDS
ARE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES WITH SEAS 8-12 FT IN MIXED
WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
DUE TO A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1022 MB HIGH AT
39N128W AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS
CENTERED AT 19N112W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 11N116W.
WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM, IT DOES
HAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN
1015W-115. SEAS ARE 8-10 FT FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 98W-106W DUE TO
RESIDUAL NE SWELL FROM A TEHUANTEPER GAP WIND EVENT THAT HAS
SINCE ENDED. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN NW SWELL.
THE COLD FRONT IN OUR NW WATERS WILL NOT PROGRESS MUCH FARTHER
EAST, AS THE STRONG SE WINDS WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE
FRONT DISSIPATE BY SUN. LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE BUT NOT
REACH EQUATORWARD OF 12N OR EASTWARD OF 130W BEFORE DIMINISHING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
GAP WIND EVENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG NE
TO E WINDS INTO THE HIGH SEAS WATERS FROM SUN INTO TUE ALONG
WITH SEA 8-12 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE OR
WEAKER AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LANDSEA
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