209
AXPZ20 KNHC 172114
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS E MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A GULF-OF-AMERICA-TRAVERSING COLD
FRONT IS INITIATING GALE-FORCE N GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. THIS GALE WILL BE PROLONGED - LIKELY
LASTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT - WITH A PEAK OF SEVERE GALE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PEAK SEAS OF AROUND 17 FT ARE POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TONIGHT AND BE VERY
ROUGH BY SUN. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE GALE-FORCE GAP
WINDS AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAOFFPZ7.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE COASTAL BOUNDARY OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR 08N83W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 06N90W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECITON IS
NOTED FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 97W-102W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT 20N113W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N116W. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM, IT DOES HAVE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 105W-117W.
AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS ACROSS FORECAST WATERS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 1-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND 3-6 FT IN NW SWELL OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW TEHUANTEPECER GAP WIND EVENT MAY
COMMENCE THU NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS 5-6 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 3-5 FT IN MAINLY NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO FORCE MODERATE
TO FRESH N WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER OVER FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. LARGE TO VERY LARGE NW TO N SWELL
GENERATED BY GALES OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR SUN THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER, EXTENDING ALONG
FROM 29N140W TO 30N139W. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WINDS ARE
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES WITH SEAS 8-11 FT IN MIXED WIND
WAVES AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND
SEAS 5-7 FT IN NW SWELL DUE TO A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A 1024 MB HIGH AT 32N128W AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ. A
WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT 20N113W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N116W. WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
WITH THE SYSTEM, IT DOES HAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OCCURRING FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 105W-117W.
THE COLD FRONT IN OUR NW WATERS WILL NOT PROGRESS MUCH FARTHER
EAST, AS THE STRONG SE WINDS WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE
FRONT DISSIPATES BY SUN. LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE BUT NOT
REACH EQUATORWARD OF 12N OR EASTWARD OF 130W BEFORE DIMINISHING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION GAP
WIND EVENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E WINDS INTO THE HIGH SEAS WATERS FROM SUN INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE OR
WEAKER AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LANDSEA
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