837
AXPZ20 KNHC 181931
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GALE- FORCE N
GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 15 FT
ARE OVER THESE WATERS. THIS GALE WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH WED
MORNING, WITH A PEAK OF SEVERE GALE THIS EVENING. VERY ROUGH
SEAS OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL SPREAD SW, REACHING AS FAR AS
100W ON MON, WITH SEAS PEAKING NEAR 18 FT TONIGHT. MARINE
INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE GALE- FORCE GAP
WINDS AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 04N90W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N90W TO 07N102W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
07N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 109W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR SOCORRO
ISLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH IN THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT, PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING SW TO 88W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NW TO N SWELL GENERATED BY GALES OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 30N135W TO 19N140W. MODERATE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. THE FRONT HAS USHERED IN A SET OF LARGE NW SWELL,
WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT N OF 10N AND W OF 133W. FRESH E TO SE
WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE EVIDENT SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND NEAR A
TROUGH ALONG 116W FROM 12N TO 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE NEAR THIS TROUGH, SPECIFICALLY FROM
12N TO 23N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND
MODERATE COMBINED SEAS, PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL, DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE LARGE NW
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF
PAPAGAYO GAP WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE OR
WEAKER, WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT, FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AL
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