369
AXPZ20 KNHC 210847
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GALE- FORCE N GAP WINDS OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AS CONFIRMED IN A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS. THIS GALE, ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS, WILL LIKELY
THROUGH THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND OCCASIONALLY
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER INTO FRI MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N85W TO 05N100W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N100W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 95W AND
105W, FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W, AND FROM 08N TO 16N
BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT, PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO 90W. ROUGH
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA IN SWELL GENERATED
BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. MODERATE TO
FRESH N WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS IN THE
3 TO 5 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO SUPPORT PULSING OF MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF PANAMA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE OR WEAKER OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. NW TO N SWELL GENERATED BY GALES OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH
TODAY.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A PLUME OF COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT CONSISTING OF SHORTER-
PERIOD NE AND E WINDS WAVES MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL EXTENDS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. THESE SEAS
ORIGINATED FROM THE ONGOING TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND
EVENTS. ALSO, LARGE NW SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT COVERS THE AREA NORTH
OF 15N AND WEST OF 130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE
COMBINED SEAS, PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL, DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PLUME OF ROUGH SEAS THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE GAP WIND EVENTS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. LIKEWISE THE
LARGE NW SWELL NORTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 130W WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER, WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT, FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CHRISTENSEN
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