255
AXPZ20 KNHC 211502
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: GALE- FORCE N GAP WINDS OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS AND OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04.5N102W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 04.5N102W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 99W AND 120W, AND
FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GALE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER GAP WIND
EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY START SUN NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT, PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO 90W. ROUGH
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA IN SWELL GENERATED
BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. MODERATE TO
FRESH N WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS IN THE
3 TO 5 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO SUPPORT PULSING OF MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF PANAMA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE OR WEAKER OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. NW TO N SWELL GENERATED BY GALES OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH
TODAY.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A PLUME OF COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT CONSISTING OF SHORTER-
PERIOD NE AND E WINDS WAVES GENERATED FROM THE ONGOING
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS MIXING WITH LONGER
PERIOD NW SWELL EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
95W AND 114W. SUBSIDING NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT OVER
THE WATERS FROM 12N TO 22N AND WEST OF 135W. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND MODERATE COMBINED SEAS, PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL,
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PLUME OF ROUGH SEAS THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE GAP WIND EVENTS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LARGE NW
SWELL WILL FURTHER SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER, WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT, FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AL
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