756
AXPZ20 KNHC 231005
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 10N84W TO 05N92W TO
04N100W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N100W TO 05N115W TO 08N126W,
THEN RESUMES WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 07N131W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
105W AND 117W, AND FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE. OUTSIDE OF THE
TEHUANTEPEC AREA, LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS ARE ONGOING OFFSHORE
JALISCO, MEXICO WITH SEAS TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT
TO GENTLE AND SEAS MODERATE TO 6 FT IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT SEAS ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND TO LIGHT TO GENTLE SPEEDS BY SAT MORNING. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY, ENHANCING WINDS TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS. TONIGHT, A
SURFACE RIDGE W AND E OF THE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, AND WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH WILL FRESHEN
THROUGH SAT EVENING, ALSO AFFECTING THE ENTRACE OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR CABO SAN
LAZARO TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
OTHERWISE, A NEW GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
START MON MORNING. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ALSO
MON MORNING AND REACH STORM-FORCE EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING. STRONG GALES WILL THEN CONTINUE
AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED MORNING. ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE GAP WIND EVENT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT, PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING TO 90W. MODERATE NW WINDS WITH
SLIGHT SEAS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THIS
REGION WILL RESUME AGAIN MON NIGHT AND REACH NEAR GALE FORCE
SPEEDS BY TUE EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER THROUGH MID-WEEK. OTHERWISE, A STRONG
GAP WIND EVENT OVER TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING LARGE NW SWELL WITH
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR FROM
MON EVENING THROUGH WED EVENING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE
WATERS W OF 128W, EXCEPT FOR ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE W
TROPICAL WATERS W OF 134W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER AND SEAS ARE MODERATE IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FRESH OR WEAKER, WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT, FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS,
ALONG WITH LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL, WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH
OF 25N AND WEST OF 135W MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHWEST OF 30N140W BY MON NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REACH FROM 30N135W TO 21N140W BY TUE MORNING AND MOVE E OF 130W
BY TUE NIGHT.
RAMOS
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