317
AXPZ20 KNHC 231603
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N100W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N100W TO 06N115W TO BEYOND 08N126W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND
120W, AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 14.5N
WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE. OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC
AREA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL
DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLES WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH
TO LIGHT TO GENTLE SPEEDS BY THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SAT MORNING, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BY SAT AFTERNOON PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ON
THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE E SIDE
OF IT. BY SAT MORNING, THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM 25N112W TO
21N114W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SAT
EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION IS SLATED TO BEGIN MON MORNING WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING
TO STRONG GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO STORM FORCE
BY MON EVENING. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS LIKELY REACHING AROUND
20 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. MARINE INTERESTS
TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
BE AWARE OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION
TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT, PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING TO 90W. MODERATE NE WINDS WITH SLIGHT
SEAS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT
TO GENTLE WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THIS REGION WILL
RESUME AGAIN MON NIGHT AND REACH NEAR GALE FORCE SPEEDS BY TUE
EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE OR WEAKER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. SEAS
GENERATED BY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR BEGINNING MON EVENING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N AND W OF
120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO
E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 22N AND W OF
130W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE
MODERATE IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FRESH OR WEAKER, WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT, FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS,
ALONG WITH LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL, WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH
OF 25N AND WEST OF 135W MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST OF 30N110W BY MON NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH
FROM 30N135W TO 21N140W BY TUE MORNING AND MOVE E OF 90W BY TUE
NIGHT.
GR
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