504
AXPZ20 KNHC 232132
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04N100W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 04N100W TO 07N115W TO 08N123W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN
116W AND 121W, AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 28N116W
TO 22N120W. A BAND OF MANLY LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING ALSO THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW
SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SAT MORNING, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SAT
EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS SLATED TO BEGIN MON MORNING WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO STORM FORCE BY MON EVENING. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS,
LIKELY REACHING AROUND 20 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT.
MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS STRONG GAP WIND EVENT, AND
TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
OF NOTE: THE MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENTS SHOWS
THAT THE LARGEST NUMBER OF GALE FORCE EVENTS OCCURS IN DECEMBER.
STORM-FORCE EVENTS OCCUR MOST OFTEN IN JANUARY.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO 88W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7
FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. MODERATE NE WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THIS REGION
WILL RESUME AGAIN MON NIGHT AND REACH NEAR GALE FORCE SPEEDS BY
TUE EVENING WITH ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE NEXT WEEK. SEAS GENERATED BY A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR BEGINNING MON EVENING. THE
HIGHEST SEAS IN THE 12 TO 18 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ON
TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR 41N137W ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, PARTICULARLY
N OF 15N AND W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS PROMOTING AND
AREA OF MAINLY FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 13N AND W OF
130W. SEAS ARE NEAR 8 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS BASED ON ALTIMETER
DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE
MODERATE IN MIXED NE WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CELL DEVELOPING
FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 32N135W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE E ON MON
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BY
MON EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W BY MON
NIGHT, AND FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W BY TUE MORNING. ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GR
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