509
AXPZ20 KNHC 240404
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N85W TO 04N102W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N102W TO 07N120W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN
110W AND 124W, AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST W OF PUNTA EUGENIA FROM
WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
OFFSHORE WATERS TO 19N121W. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA
SUPPORTS MODERATE NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SEAS ARE
MODERATE TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING ALSO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SAT MORNING, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SAT
EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS SLATED TO BEGIN MON MORNING WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO STORM FORCE BY MON EVENING. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS,
LIKELY REACHING AROUND 27 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT.
MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS STRONG GAP WIND EVENT, AND
TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
OF NOTE: THE MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENTS SHOWS
THAT THE LARGEST NUMBER OF GALE FORCE EVENTS OCCURS IN DECEMBER.
STORM-FORCE EVENTS OCCUR MOST OFTEN IN JANUARY.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO 88W. SEAS ARE 3 TO 6
FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. EASTERLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE OUTER GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH 5 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED E AND NW SWELL.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED
SW AND NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THIS REGION WILL
RESUME AGAIN MON AND REACH NEAR GALE FORCE SPEEDS BY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON WITH ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY
A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
BEGINNING MON EVENING, AND SUBSIDE WED. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE
N WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OFFSHORES MON
NIGHT INTO TUE EVENING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS FROM
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 42N136W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ITCZ IS PROMOTING AND AREA OF MAINLY FRESH TRADES N OF THE
ITCZ TO ABOUT 20N AND W OF 130W. SEAS ARE NEAR 8 FT WITHIN THESE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE
MODERATE IN MIXED NE WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CELL DEVELOPING
FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 32N135W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE E ON MON
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BY
MON EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W BY MON
NIGHT, AND FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W BY TUE MORNING. ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
RAMOS
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