166
AXPZ20 KNHC 240909
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0820 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N85W TO 04N95W TO
03N102W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N102W TO 07N120W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 18N
BETWEEN 107W AND 123W, AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 124W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST NW OF PUNTA EUGENIA FROM
WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
OFFSHORE WATERS TO 17N124W. HIGH PRESSURE WNW OF THE AREA
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS
N OF CABO SAN LAZARO AS RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE. SEAS
ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE WITHIN THESE WINDS. MODERATE SW AND NW
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE SEAS ARE SLIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH
THIS MORNING, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS BY THIS
EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION IS SLATED TO BEGIN MON MORNING WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO STORM FORCE BY MON EVENING. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS,
LIKELY REACHING AROUND 28 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT.
MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS STRONG GAP WIND EVENT, AND
TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
OF NOTE: THE MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENTS SHOWS
THAT THE LARGEST NUMBER OF GALE FORCE EVENTS OCCURS IN DECEMBER.
STORM-FORCE EVENTS OCCUR MOST OFTEN IN JANUARY.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 90W. SEAS ARE 3 TO 6 FT WITHIN
THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THIS REGION WILL
RESUME AGAIN MON MORNING, POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR GALE-FORCE
SPEEDS BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON WITH ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED BY A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR BEGINNING MON NIGHT, AND SUBSIDE WED EVENING.
FRESH TO GALE-FORCE N WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR OFFSHORES MON EVENING THROUGH
TUE EVENING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL FORECAST WATERS
AND INTO THE DEEP TROPICS TO ABOUT 14N. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND
ALONG 124W, A SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OR W OF
124W. ALTIMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT WITHIN THIS AREA
OF WINDS. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE ONGOING WITHIN THE AREA OF
TSTMS PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE MODERATE IN MIXED NE AND NW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CELL
DEVELOPING NEAR 32N135W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE E BY MON
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL FORECAST WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 31N129W TO
25N131W BEFORE DISSIPATING BY WED EVENING JUST W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL START AFFECTING THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM W TO E MON
EVENING THROUGH FRI WHEN SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
RAMOS
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